CHEUVREUX ECONOMICS & STRATEGY
Technically Speaking, 24 September 2007
Individual French CAC40 Shares
CONCLUSION: 24 September 2007
ACCOR (hold): We expect recovery before renewing weakness. Awaiting the sell signal on the indicator.
AIR FRANCE (hold): the downside pressure is approaching the 24.30-25.25 support. Neutral at current stage.
AIR LIQUIDE (buy): contrarian buy, the upside potential would reach 99-100 window. stop 87.00 close.
ALCATEL (sell): the weakness targeted 5.90-6.20 or lower at 5.65. stop lowered 6.80 close.
ALSTOM (buy): reached the ideal 143-145 target or higher marginally higher 150-151. stop adjusted 125 close.
ARCELOR-MITALL (buy): 53.50 may trigger pullback. But the LT target would reach 57.80-58.60. stop 45 close.
AXA (hold): bounced again from the support. We expect some recovery phase.
BNP PARIBAS (hold): the target reached. We cover short position and we move to neutral.
BOUYGUES (hold): the current strength would be limited to 60.60-61.60 or marginally higher 64. we move to hold.
CAP GEMINI (hold): almost reached the downside target within 37.60-38.80 area.
CARREFOUR (buy): contrarian buy with upside potential towards 54-56 area. stop 45.50 close.
CRÉDIT AGRICOLE (hold): the channel's support still triggers bounce at 25-26 area. monitor 28.25 for breakout.
DANONE (buy): the recovery phase reached 58 then 61 area (double bottom objective). stop 53.75 close.
DEXIA (hold): the recovery would be limited to 22.00-22.50-23.00 area.
EADS (hold): the anticipated move reached the channel's support at 20. the share could retest again the support.
EDF (sell): sell on strength, the share would retest the support at 65-66 area. stop 76.25 close.
ESSILOR INTERNT. (buy): contrarian buy with upside to 47-48 area. stop 41.50 close.
FRANCE-TELECOM (buy): the upside is 23.50 then towards the LT target at 24.50-25. stop adjusted 22.00 close.
GAZ DE FRANCE (hold): major congestion would unfold. Monitor the boundary limits within 31--38 window.
LAFARGE (hold): the weakness reached the ideal 104-106 target. cover short.
LAGARDERE (buy): contrarian buy towards 60 then higher 64-65 window. stop 56 close.
LVMH (buy): contrarian buy. The confirmation above 82.50. the upside potential is 89-90. stop 75.50 close.
L’ ORÉAL (buy): breakout acceleration lasting until late November. The upside is 98-99 area. stop 82.50 close.
MICHELIN (buy): contrarian buy. The initial upside target is 94-95 window. stop 81.00 close.
PERNOD RICARD (buy): contrarian buy with upside potential towards 170-172. stop 145.00 close.
PEUGEOT (hold): monitor the neckline of the potential H&S pattern at 54-55.
PPR (hold): the rally would be limited to the channel's barrier at 136-140 area.
RENAULT (buy): contrarian buy towards 102-104 area above which would target higher objective. stop 87.50 close
SAINT-GOBAIN (hold): the share reached the downside target. We cover short position.
SANOFI-AVENTIS (buy): the recovery would reach 65.75-66.00 target. stop 59.00 close.
SCHNEIDER-ELECTRIC (sell): the support at 87-88 reached then lower towards 82-84. stop 101.50 close.
SOCIÉTE GÉNÉRALE (hold): the anticipated support reached at 105-113 area. Cover short pending for sideways.
STMICROELECTRONIC (hold): the share reached the support of the major congestion phase within 11-11.50-12.
SUEZ LYONNAISE (hold): the congestion phase would continue within 35-36 and 43-45 limits.
TOTAL (buy): the share would reach to 59 then higher 60-61 area. stop adjusted 55.00 close.
UNIBAIL (sell): the target of the double top pattern reached at 160 then lower to 140-141. stop 95.75 close.
VALLOUREC (buy): bounced from the channel's support towards 202 then 225. stop 176.00 close.
VEOLIA ENVIR. (buy): the rally would reach 59.75-60 or higher 63 area. stop 56.25 close.
VINCI (buy): we expect recovery phase towards 56-57 area. stop 48.00 close.
VIVENDI (buy): the recovery reached 30.50 or higher to 32 area. Stop 28.00 close.
|
Société
|
Perf 1 mois
|
Perf 3 mois
|
Perf 6 mois
|
Moyenne
|
Rang
|
|
Accor
|
4,8%
|
-8,7%
|
-13,9%
|
-5,9%
|
23
|
|
Air Liquide
|
-5,8%
|
-0,8%
|
-0,4%
|
-2,3%
|
14
|
|
Alcatel Lucent
|
-8,7%
|
-25,6%
|
-20,2%
|
-18,2%
|
37
|
|
Alstom
|
3,0%
|
13,1%
|
40,0%
|
18,7%
|
1
|
|
AXA
|
0,6%
|
-9,1%
|
-12,3%
|
-6,9%
|
26
|
|
BNP Paribas
|
-8,4%
|
-17,0%
|
-10,0%
|
-11,8%
|
33
|
|
Bouygues
|
4,9%
|
-13,1%
|
3,9%
|
-1,4%
|
9
|
|
Capgemini
|
0,0%
|
-18,6%
|
-20,1%
|
-12,9%
|
34
|
|
Carrefour
|
-6,4%
|
-9,5%
|
-12,3%
|
-9,4%
|
30
|
|
Crédit Agricole
|
-3,1%
|
-11,4%
|
-13,8%
|
-9,4%
|
31
|
|
Danone
|
-1,2%
|
-3,3%
|
-10,1%
|
-4,9%
|
20
|
|
Dexia
|
8,6%
|
-9,5%
|
-4,0%
|
-1,6%
|
11
|
|
EADS
|
-3,4%
|
-9,1%
|
-10,4%
|
-7,6%
|
27
|
|
EDF
|
-0,3%
|
4,2%
|
25,2%
|
9,7%
|
2
|
|
France Tel
|
9,5%
|
2,7%
|
10,0%
|
7,4%
|
3
|
|
Gaz de France
|
-0,1%
|
-3,8%
|
-2,0%
|
-2,0%
|
13
|
|
L'Oréal
|
-2,2%
|
-3,3%
|
5,8%
|
0,1%
|
8
|
|
Lafarge
|
-6,4%
|
-15,5%
|
-7,5%
|
-9,8%
|
32
|
|
Lagardère
|
-2,8%
|
-5,9%
|
-3,5%
|
-4,1%
|
16
|
|
Société
|
Perf 1 mois
|
Perf 3 mois
|
Perf 6 mois
|
Moyenne
|
Rang
|
|
LVMH
|
-3,5%
|
-6,8%
|
-6,7%
|
-5,7%
|
22
|
|
Michelin
|
0,9%
|
-9,8%
|
10,5%
|
0,5%
|
7
|
|
Pernod Ricard
|
-3,3%
|
-4,5%
|
-0,4%
|
-2,7%
|
15
|
|
Peugeot
|
-2,9%
|
-1,8%
|
9,6%
|
1,6%
|
6
|
|
PPR
|
5,2%
|
-0,5%
|
6,4%
|
3,7%
|
4
|
|
Renault
|
-6,1%
|
-17,0%
|
-1,2%
|
-8,1%
|
28
|
|
Saint-Gobain
|
-11,2%
|
-9,7%
|
1,2%
|
-6,6%
|
25
|
|
Sanofi-Aventis
|
1,8%
|
-11,7%
|
-8,9%
|
-6,3%
|
24
|
|
Schneider
|
-1,0%
|
-12,8%
|
-0,3%
|
-4,7%
|
19
|
|
Société Gén
|
-7,6%
|
-19,5%
|
-12,3%
|
-13,1%
|
35
|
|
STMicro
|
-0,7%
|
-6,4%
|
-9,1%
|
-5,4%
|
21
|
|
Suez
|
1,1%
|
-5,3%
|
-0,4%
|
-1,5%
|
10
|
|
Thomson
|
-2,7%
|
-17,3%
|
-19,8%
|
-13,3%
|
36
|
|
Total
|
2,7%
|
-1,3%
|
7,9%
|
3,1%
|
5
|
|
Vallourec
|
-7,2%
|
-21,1%
|
1,1%
|
-9,1%
|
29
|
|
Veolia Environ.
|
-2,3%
|
-6,4%
|
3,1%
|
-1,9%
|
12
|
|
Vinci
|
1,4%
|
-8,6%
|
-6,6%
|
-4,6%
|
18
|
|
Vivendi
|
-0,4%
|
-8,4%
|
-3,7%
|
-4,2%
|
17
|
|
CAC 40
|
-1,1%
|
-8,4%
|
-2,7%
|
-4,1%
|
|